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What Does Random Mean?

What Does Random Mean?

I’ve been reading a lot of articles about scientific journalism, and what Scientists and Journalists need to change in how they release new findings to combat public misunderstanding. There are some great ideas there, and a lot of people committed to making this happen. The problem, though, is that science has a lot of concepts and vocabulary that are either exclusive to science (and impossible for non-scientists to understand) or are used differently in a colloquial context. So I’m going to start small and pick one. RANDOM.

If you’re having a conversation with someone and the word “random” comes up, you’re likely to think “something completely unexpected,” or “something without precedent,” or “something that just makes no sense.” “Random” started off meaning one thing to scientists and mathematicians and another to everyone else, and now it’s becoming a catchword for many other things that are even further removed from the strictest definition of “random.” Pseudoscientists and peddlers of dubious ideas and products take advantage of this by using the new popular understanding of the word to misrepresent or even mock science that uses it, so I want to set you straight.

Let’s start off with a straightforward explanation. “Random,” in science or mathematics, refers to a set or subset of existing things that is separated, combined, or put in order without any plan or pattern.

Take a look at A Million Random Digits with 100,000 Normal Deviates. This book has been around for a long time, and it’s an important tool for checking probabilities and mathematical formulae to make sure that they work with numbers that have no patterns. It’s not a very exciting read, obviously, but what you will find if you look at it is pages and pages of numbers. In other words, you will not find symbols, color dots, letters, or little drawings of cats. The numbers are random because they cannot be placed in any kind of sequence – as a simple example, you wouldn’t be able to add three to the first digit, six to the next, nine to the next pair, etc.

If you were talking to your friend about this book of numbers that was, like, totally random, your friend might reasonably expect to find those symbols, color dots, letters, or little drawings of cats. But your friend would be wrong; that wouldn’t truly be random since none of those things exist in the set called “numbers.”

So let’s look at this from the point where I see most of the misinterpretation of “random”. . .genetics. I want you to imagine two bags of marbles. I’m not going to specify how many, because we’re not going to get started on the difference between chromosomes and genes or anything like that. We’re just going to be very general and say that each marble represents a piece of genetic information.

two-sacks

One sack is filled with marbles that represent Dad’s genetic information, the other is filled with marbles that represent Mom’s genetic information. Now let’s say that Dad’s marbles are almost all primary colors, but there are a couple of purples, a few greens, one black, and one white. Mom’s marbles are mostly secondary colors, but she does have a smattering of reds, blues, and yellows, and one black and one white. So you reach into the bags blindfolded and grab a handful of each, and this is what you come up with:

two-sets-of-marbles

That’s random (although it’s unlikely that you’re going to get the single black marble and single white marble from each bag. I just wanted to use them.) Do you see any peach pits, or rocks, or silver marbles? Of course not. They weren’t part of the set from which you were randomly selecting. They’re not going to appear out of nowhere – and if they do, it’s not scientifically random.

Now let’s say that we’re going to pair them up. The only rule is going to be that the marble from Dad’s set can’t be paired up with the same color from Mom’s set. In real life, this happens fast, and the number of pairs is significantly bigger, but this is a decent symbolic representation. So across the top are the marbles we got from Dad, and below that are the marbles we got from Mom.

marbles-paired

Randomly we ended up with a unique combination – but still, there is nothing there that wasn’t present in the original set. Randomly we ended up with an extra blue marble from Mom. It could have been an extra orange, purple, green, red, yellow, black, or white marble – but it could never be a peach pit, or a rock, or a silver marble.

You could take all these marbles and put them in different sequences, but nothing is going to change the number of marbles, the colors, or which marbles came from which bag. You might get different pairs of colors, or all the same pairs but in different order.

Randomness, in science or mathematics, means that we have certain things that are givens. A set of numbers will contain nothing but numbers. A set of genes will contain nothing that isn’t already in the genome. Any random thing we look at will be comprised of something very specific that already exists. What makes it random is how it ends up being put together.

I hope that makes sense. Feel free to ask questions or add to the discussion.

Expert Opinions

Expert Opinions

Somewhere in the wilds of the INTARWEBS, I had the audacity to suggest that the opinions of experts actively practicing in a specialized field probably were things we should pay attention to – especially if they were held by a majority of these experts. Well. . .someone whom I would never, ever be so insensitive enough to characterize as dumb as a bag of hammers took great offense at this. His argument, which boiled down to telling me I was a poopy diaper head, was that if several people were strongly invested in an opinion that gave them emotional satisfaction, it should be held in the same high regard as that of a phalanx of well-educated, well-respected researchers whose opinions were informed by well-supported evidence.

Taking this tack would mean that at the next major convention of geologists, the guy who disproved continental drift by taping cut-out paper continents onto a balloon and blowing it up should be sitting at the table for the panel discussion on plate tectonics or continental drift. His opinion is just as valid!

It would mean that the guy who “disproved” that a plane hit the twin towers by hitting a stack of plastic inboxes with the side of his hand was just as credible as a professional engineer with specialized knowledge of airplane technology or the structure and construction of the towers.

Robin Ince posted a much better rebuttal to this idea in his blog entry “The Fascism of Knowing Stuff.” He’s more articulate about it than I could hope to be. He covers a number of reasons why these beliefs are held mostly by people who don’t know stuff, and people who are not afraid of what is known, but how it will be used. Some of his commenters “got it,” as well – it’s much easier to condemn specialized knowledge that you don’t actually have. It’s comforting to see your beliefs confirmed because you don’t understand the much more complex factual information that challenges them.

One expert, one “guru,” isn’t enough to hang all your understanding upon. Believers tend to believe a source and all those who agree with that source regardless of whether or not they themselves have any expertise. But when all or pretty much all the specialists in a field of knowledge say one thing is the most likely explanation, and the only people who challenge them have no background in that field, you really should have some confidence in the experts.

The Heritage Foundation, among other things, is a big anti-global-warming promoter. I sucked it up and watched one of their videos so I could have a cogent argument with a climate change denialist, and the one thing that every single speaker had in common was the admission that he was not a climate scientist. In fact, most of the speakers weren’t scientists at all. One former astronaut claimed that since he had seen the earth from outer space, that was proof enough to him that the earth looked just fine.

The things we know now are far more complex than the things we used to know. They consist of many more specialized pieces. There are few areas in which a general knowledge is sufficient for understanding. One expert can have a different view, or not really be much of an expert at all – but when an opinion is held about a piece of specialized knowledge and is the consensus among the other people who are actively working in that specialized field, it’s a safe bet to take their word over something some guy said on the internet.

Wednesday Links

Wednesday Links

A new study was published in the Journal of the American Medical Association about neuroimaging to determine response to medication or therapy in Major Depressive Disorder. It seems much more exciting if you don’t actually read it. Fortunately, Neurocritic did, so you have someone to explain what’s hope and what’s hype.

Paul Offit explains why we shouldn’t take multivitamins.

He also has a book coming out soon called “Do You Believe in Magic? The Sense and Nonsense of Alternative Medicine” and USA Today covers some of the issues that make this stuff such a dangerous alternative.

And Darshak Sanghavi at Slate wonders why so many of us think we need to avoid gluten

Now, if you happen to be near Washington, DC, and you want to see some cool genetics stuff, hit the Smithsonian Museum of Natural History for an exhibit called Genome: Unlocking Life’s Code.

Teaching otters to use vending machines might not be the best idea, but it sure is cute to watch.